Random Thoughts
The following are random thoughts for which I have no readily available evidence but which I believe are or will prove to be true. You read it here first...because this is my only blog:
1. Whatever else happens in Iraq over the short and medium term, the Iraqi people are not going to go back to living the way they did during Saddam Hussein's era. In support of this, I suggest reading the various Iraqi blogs that are all over the Internet (e.g., Iraqthemodel.blogspot.com and the various Iraqi blogs that are linked there). In the last two years, Iraqis have had a good taste of what it is like to think and feel and say what you want without fear of the secret police dragging you off because you've been politically incorrect. Unlike, for example, the Prague Spring, this freedom has been sustained long enough that I can't imagine they will be willing to let it go. I can't think of any other comparable movement of free expression in modern history that lasted at least two years but was successfully quenched thereafter by a repressive force. And the difference now is that it is not just exercising the freedom to speak to a neighbor or another patron at the local coffee shop. Iraqis are now shouting their opinions and beliefs to the whole world. Very addicting.
2. Future events in Iran are directly linked to the success of Iraq in becoming a decent society and a full member of the civilized community of nations. This may play out initially through significant interaction with Iranians crossing the border to live and work in Iraq, thus extenuating the differences in the two countries and making it even more difficult for the Mullahs to maintain control over the increasingly restive population. Today's Iranians, as the inheritors of an incredible and accomplished history (which is well remembered there even now), are not going to accept being outshone by their Iraqi neighbors.
3. Karl Rove will not be fired.
4. Hillary Clinton will never be President of the United States.
5. Jeb Bush will never be President of the United States.
6. I will never read a Harry Potter book.
7. No team in major league baseball will come back from down 0-3 to win it all for at least another 100 years.
8. Barry Bonds will not beat Babe Ruth's homerun record.
9. Johnny Damon will beat Joe Dimaggio's record of hitting safely in 56 straight games.
10. Derrek Lee (Chicago Cubs) will win the triple crown.
posted by Presley Bennett @ 7/15/2005
3 comments
3 Comments:
I thought that the Prague Spring was shorter in duration and also didn't have the benefit of the global technology to support freedom of expression or as a mechanism to amplify it. I just strongly believe that once a society experiences freedom of expression many good things happen and that it is very hard for a counter-force to stifle it.
The point I was trying to make was that since March, 2003 despite a whole lot of other problems, the Iraqis have been free to blog, email, publish newspapers and just generally express themselves. It has now been over 2 years that they have had this freedom. The Prague Spring, I just checked, last approximately 8 months and was of course crushed by the Soviets. It didn't really have time to take hold and didn't have the benefits of modern technology.
The Iraqis are not at risk of losing their freedom of expression until we leave which won't be anytime soon (meaning it's not in the next several months). This means that they will have experienced this freedom for several years by the time they are left on their own and I am proposing that they will not allow themselves to be crushed by an oppressor like Saddam ever again because they will not want to let go of what they have now. They will want more of it.
That's a good point, I hadn't thought of it. You're right, of course, the desire for self-expression didn't go away and fueled the ultimate throwing off of the opressive regimes. Which is interesting now that I think about it. Because maybe that was a key to the Soviet's ultimate failure, that it couldn't find a way to stifle the underground communication that grew out of the brief period of openness.
I think, actually I know, that this was important in the Polish experience with Solidarity. Much of that started in secret and the regime tried very hard to stifle it and couldn't.
The Iraq comparison wouldn't be exact I guess because I don't think there was much underground movement of ideas during Saddam's regime. It's just flourished since his removal. Mostly it was expatriates trying to get the word out and influence events from outside Iraq.
This will be interesting as the history of the Saddam era is told though. Maybe it was happening and we just don't know it yet. I don't think so because there was such fear and terrorizing of anyone suspected of stepping out of line.
I have a great interest in the subject, you can probably tell by my blog name...i.e., government severely limited in its ability to regulate our expressive activity based on its content because of the incredible significance we attach to the free exchange of ideas. Freedom of speech is the single most important right any society can have, IMO.
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